1. Introduction
Rectal toxicity remains a clinical issue in prostate radiotherapy. Existing toxicity prediction models may no longer be appropriate for the modern high-dose gradient complex treatments currently being delivered, as the historic data used to derive constraints for dose-limiting organs were based on 3D conformal techniques [
1- Emami B.
- Lyman J.
- Brown A.
- Cola L.
- Goitein M.
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Tolerance of normal tissue to therapeutic irradiation.
,
2Marks LB, Yorke ED, Jackson A, Ten Haken RK, Constine LS, Eisbruch A, et al. Use of normal tissue complication probability models in the clinic. Int J Radiat Oncol Biol Phys 2010;76(3 Suppl)(1):S10–9.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijrobp.2009.07.1754.
]. The underlying mechanisms and pathophysiology of rectal toxicity remain relatively poorly understood [
3- Barnett G.C.
- West C.M.L.
- Dunning A.M.
- Elliott R.M.
- Coles C.E.
- Pharoah P.D.P.
- et al.
Normal tissue reactions to radiotherapy: towards tailoring treatment dose by genotype.
,
4- Jaffray D.A.
- Lindsay P.E.
- Brock K.K.
- Deasy J.O.
- Tomé W.
Accurate accumulation of dose for improved understanding of radiation effects in normal tissue.
].
Dose-volume histogram (DVH) constraints are commonly applied in radiotherapy treatment planning to achieve an optimal compromise between tumour coverage and healthy organ sparing. However, it is widely acknowledged that DVH parameters are limited by their lack of spatial dose information [
5- Wortel R.C.
- Witte M.G.
- van der Heide U.A.
- Pos F.J.
- Lebesque J.V.
- van Herk M.
- et al.
Dose–surface maps identifying local dose–effects for acute gastrointestinal toxicity after radiotherapy for prostate cancer.
,
6- Acosta O.
- Drean G.
- Ospina J.D.
- Simon A.
- Haigron P.
- Lafond C.
- et al.
Voxel-based population analysis for correlating local dose and rectal toxicity in prostate cancer radiotherapy.
,
7- Buettner F.
- Gulliford S.
- Partridge M.
- Sydes M.R.
- Dearnaley D.
- Webb S.
Assessing correlations between the spatial distribution of dose to the rectal wall and late rectal toxicity after prostate radiotherapy.
]. Studies into more appropriate dose descriptors for the rectal wall (RW) have generally been focused on parameterisation of dose surface maps (DSMs) where the RW is virtually cut and unfolded to a normalised 2D map so that geometric dose information can be preserved [
5- Wortel R.C.
- Witte M.G.
- van der Heide U.A.
- Pos F.J.
- Lebesque J.V.
- van Herk M.
- et al.
Dose–surface maps identifying local dose–effects for acute gastrointestinal toxicity after radiotherapy for prostate cancer.
,
7- Buettner F.
- Gulliford S.
- Partridge M.
- Sydes M.R.
- Dearnaley D.
- Webb S.
Assessing correlations between the spatial distribution of dose to the rectal wall and late rectal toxicity after prostate radiotherapy.
,
8- Murray J.
- McQuaid D.
- Dunlop A.
- Buettner F.
- Nill S.
- Hall E.
- et al.
SU-E-J-14: a novel approach to evaluate the dosimetric effect of rectal variation during image guided prostate radiotherapy.
,
9- Scaife J.E.
- Thomas S.J.
- Harrison K.
- Romanchikova M.
- Sutcliffe M.P.F.
- Forman J.R.
- et al.
Accumulated dose to the rectum, measured using dose-volume histograms and dose-surface maps, is different from planned dose in all patients treated with radiotherapy for prostate cancer.
,
10Onjukka E, Fiorino C, Cicchetti A, Palorini F, Improta I, Gagliardi G, et al. Patterns in ano-rectal dose maps and the risk of late toxicity after prostate IMRT. Acta Oncol:1–8.https://doi.org/10.1080/0284186X.2019.1635267.
,
11- Moulton C.R.
- House M.J.
- Lye V.
- Tang C.I.
- Krawiec M.
- Joseph D.J.
- et al.
Spatial features of dose–surface maps from deformably-registered plans correlate with late gastrointestinal complications.
,
12- Casares-Magaz O.
- Muren L.P.
- Moiseenko V.
- Petersen S.E.
- Pettersson N.J.
- Høyer M.
- et al.
Spatial rectal dose/volume metrics predict patient-reported gastro-intestinal symptoms after radiotherapy for prostate cancer.
,
13- Vanneste B.G.
- Buettner F.
- Pinkawa M.
- Lambin P.
- Hoffmann A.L.
Ano-rectal wall dose-surface maps localize the dosimetric benefit of hydrogel rectum spacers in prostate cancer radiotherapy.
,
14Casares-Magaz O, Bülow S, Pettersson NJ, Moiseenko V, Pedersen J, Thor M, et al. High accumulated doses to the inferior rectum are associated with late gastro-intestinal toxicity in a case-control study of prostate cancer patients treated with radiotherapy 2019;58(10):1543–1546.https://doi.org/10.1080/0284186X.2019.1632476.
,
15- Heemsbergen W.D.
- Incrocci L.
- Pos F.J.
- Heijmen B.J.
- Witte M.G.
Local dose effects for late gastrointestinal toxicity after hypofractionated and conventionally fractionated modern radiotherapy for prostate cancer in the HYPRO trial.
,
16- Shelley L.E.A.
- Scaife J.E.
- Romanchikova M.
- Harrison K.
- Forman J.R.
- Bates A.M.
- et al.
Delivered dose can be a better predictor of rectal toxicity than planned dose in prostate radiotherapy.
].
An advancing area of research, which complements interrogation of localised dose features, is voxelwise dose-toxicity analysis [
17- Dréan G.
- Acosta O.
- Lafond C.
- Simon A.
- de Crevoisier R.
- Haigron P.
Inter-individual registration and dose mapping for voxelwise population analysis of rectal toxicity in prostate cancer radiotherapy.
,
18- Dréan G.
- Acosta O.
- Ospina J.D.
- Fargeas A.
- Lafond C.
- Corrégé G.
- et al.
Identification of a rectal subregion highly predictive of rectal bleeding in prostate cancer IMRT.
]. Investigating associations between voxel-level dose and toxicity can improve the accuracy in identifying heterogeneous areas of heightened dose sensitivity, or rectal subregions at risk (SRRs) [
[18]- Dréan G.
- Acosta O.
- Ospina J.D.
- Fargeas A.
- Lafond C.
- Corrégé G.
- et al.
Identification of a rectal subregion highly predictive of rectal bleeding in prostate cancer IMRT.
]. One solution offering voxel-resolution anatomical modelling and 3D tracking of organ motion, is biomechanical finite element (FE) analysis [
19- Brock K.
- Sharpe M.
- Dawson L.
- Kim S.
- Jaffray D.
Accuracy of finite element model-based multi-organ deformable image registration.
,
20- Brock K.K.
- Dawson L.A.
- Sharpe M.B.
- Moseley D.J.
- Jaffray D.A.
Feasibility of a novel deformable image registration technique to facilitate classification, targeting, and monitoring of tumor and normal tissue.
,
21- Velec M.
- Moseley J.L.
- Craig T.
- Dawson L.A.
- Brock K.K.
Accumulated dose in liver stereotactic body radiotherapy: positioning, breathing, and deformation effects.
,
22- Boubaker M.B.
- Haboussi M.
- Ganghoffer J.F.
- Aletti P.
Finite element simulation of interactions between pelvic organs: predictive model of the prostate motion in the context of radiotherapy.
,
23- Boubaker M.B.
- Haboussi M.
- Ganghoffer J.F.
- Aletti P.
Predictive model of the prostate motion in the context of radiotherapy: a biomechanical approach relying on urodynamic data and mechanical testing.
,
24- Velec M.
- Moseley J.L.
- Svensson S.
- Hårdemark B.
- Jaffray D.A.
- Brock K.K.
Validation of biomechanical deformable image registration in the abdomen, thorax, and pelvis in a commercial radiotherapy treatment planning system.
]. FE modelling applies constitutive equations to anatomical simulations, and unlike the DSM method, is not restricted to normalised in-plane expansion. Additionally, by comparison with image intensity-based deformable registration tools which can struggle at large deformations and are generally also limited to planar expansions [
[25]Zambrano V, Furtado H, Fabri D, LUtgendorf-Caucig C, GOra J, Stock M, et al. Performance validation of deformable image registration in the pelvic region. J Radiat Res 2013;54(suppl 1):i120–i128.https://doi.org/10.1093/jrr/rrt045.
], FE offers superior spatial functionality.
An overarching limitation and recommendation of studies examining dose-toxicity associations in prostate radiotherapy, has been that motion-inclusive dosimetric data are required for a more complete understanding of the underlying mechanisms [
[4]- Jaffray D.A.
- Lindsay P.E.
- Brock K.K.
- Deasy J.O.
- Tomé W.
Accurate accumulation of dose for improved understanding of radiation effects in normal tissue.
]. Radiation treatments to the pelvic region are particularly susceptible to interfraction motion which can lead to large deviations between planned dose and that actually delivered. This introduces an inherent uncertainty in dose-toxicity modelling based on planned dose.
Previous work [
[16]- Shelley L.E.A.
- Scaife J.E.
- Romanchikova M.
- Harrison K.
- Forman J.R.
- Bates A.M.
- et al.
Delivered dose can be a better predictor of rectal toxicity than planned dose in prostate radiotherapy.
] presented the calculation and accumulation of delivered dose to DSMs of the RW. The 2D DSMs were resampled such that the number of pixels spanning the width was equal to the rectal length from the planning scan [
7- Buettner F.
- Gulliford S.
- Partridge M.
- Sydes M.R.
- Dearnaley D.
- Webb S.
Assessing correlations between the spatial distribution of dose to the rectal wall and late rectal toxicity after prostate radiotherapy.
,
8- Murray J.
- McQuaid D.
- Dunlop A.
- Buettner F.
- Nill S.
- Hall E.
- et al.
SU-E-J-14: a novel approach to evaluate the dosimetric effect of rectal variation during image guided prostate radiotherapy.
]. However, when applied to dose accumulation, the DSM approach was limited in that modelling of rectal expansion and deformation was in-plane only and uniformly normalised about the circumference of the rectum. The motivation for implementing biomechanical FE modelling into the VoxTox workflow was to provide a more anatomically representative basis for voxel-level accumulation of delivered dose [
[26]Image processing in radiation therapy.
]. FE models have previously been developed for the rectum in prostate radiotherapy [
22- Boubaker M.B.
- Haboussi M.
- Ganghoffer J.F.
- Aletti P.
Finite element simulation of interactions between pelvic organs: predictive model of the prostate motion in the context of radiotherapy.
,
23- Boubaker M.B.
- Haboussi M.
- Ganghoffer J.F.
- Aletti P.
Predictive model of the prostate motion in the context of radiotherapy: a biomechanical approach relying on urodynamic data and mechanical testing.
], but to date, dose accumulation studies have focused on the liver [
[21]- Velec M.
- Moseley J.L.
- Craig T.
- Dawson L.A.
- Brock K.K.
Accumulated dose in liver stereotactic body radiotherapy: positioning, breathing, and deformation effects.
].
The aim of this study was to determine rectal SRRs from planned and accumulated FE-DSMs, and investigate associations with toxicity.
4. Discussion
The investigation of associations between localised dose to rectal SRRs and toxicity is an area of increasing interest. In the current study, subregions of the RW were identified by statistical evaluation of voxel-level dose differences between FE-DSMs of patients with and without toxicity. The addition of biomechanical FE modelling provided a more anatomically representative solution than the previous 2D-based normalised DSM approach. SRRs were generated based on planned and accumulated FE-DSMs, indicating spatial clusters and localised dose patterns unique to each toxicity endpoint. These findings develop upon previous work investigating spatial aspects of rectal DSMs with regards to improving toxicity prediction [
16- Shelley L.E.A.
- Scaife J.E.
- Romanchikova M.
- Harrison K.
- Forman J.R.
- Bates A.M.
- et al.
Delivered dose can be a better predictor of rectal toxicity than planned dose in prostate radiotherapy.
,
27- Burnet N.G.
- Scaife J.
- Romanchikova M.
- Thomas S.
- Bates A.
- Wong E.
- et al.
Applying physical science techniques and CERN technology to an unsolved problem in radiation treatment for cancer: the multidisciplinary ‘VoxTox’ research programme.
]. Several studies have used DSM analysis to demonstrate links between toxicity and mid-to-intermediate dose levels (i.e. other than maximum or prescription level doses) [
5- Wortel R.C.
- Witte M.G.
- van der Heide U.A.
- Pos F.J.
- Lebesque J.V.
- van Herk M.
- et al.
Dose–surface maps identifying local dose–effects for acute gastrointestinal toxicity after radiotherapy for prostate cancer.
,
7- Buettner F.
- Gulliford S.
- Partridge M.
- Sydes M.R.
- Dearnaley D.
- Webb S.
Assessing correlations between the spatial distribution of dose to the rectal wall and late rectal toxicity after prostate radiotherapy.
,
10Onjukka E, Fiorino C, Cicchetti A, Palorini F, Improta I, Gagliardi G, et al. Patterns in ano-rectal dose maps and the risk of late toxicity after prostate IMRT. Acta Oncol:1–8.https://doi.org/10.1080/0284186X.2019.1635267.
,
11- Moulton C.R.
- House M.J.
- Lye V.
- Tang C.I.
- Krawiec M.
- Joseph D.J.
- et al.
Spatial features of dose–surface maps from deformably-registered plans correlate with late gastrointestinal complications.
,
12- Casares-Magaz O.
- Muren L.P.
- Moiseenko V.
- Petersen S.E.
- Pettersson N.J.
- Høyer M.
- et al.
Spatial rectal dose/volume metrics predict patient-reported gastro-intestinal symptoms after radiotherapy for prostate cancer.
,
13- Vanneste B.G.
- Buettner F.
- Pinkawa M.
- Lambin P.
- Hoffmann A.L.
Ano-rectal wall dose-surface maps localize the dosimetric benefit of hydrogel rectum spacers in prostate cancer radiotherapy.
,
15- Heemsbergen W.D.
- Incrocci L.
- Pos F.J.
- Heijmen B.J.
- Witte M.G.
Local dose effects for late gastrointestinal toxicity after hypofractionated and conventionally fractionated modern radiotherapy for prostate cancer in the HYPRO trial.
]. This suggests that further knowledge and understanding of the interaction between dose level, spatial distribution and location within the RW may improve endpoint-specific toxicity prediction.
From the SRR analysis presented here, of particular note is that although patterns differed per endpoint, regions of interest were generally identified away from the highest dose levels (i.e. closest to the prostate), and extended towards lower dose levels, posteriorly, superiorly and/or inferiorly, depending on the particular endpoint. This effect has been observed in previous studies, with several authors reporting associations between dose to the inferior rectum and rectal bleeding [
8- Murray J.
- McQuaid D.
- Dunlop A.
- Buettner F.
- Nill S.
- Hall E.
- et al.
SU-E-J-14: a novel approach to evaluate the dosimetric effect of rectal variation during image guided prostate radiotherapy.
,
10Onjukka E, Fiorino C, Cicchetti A, Palorini F, Improta I, Gagliardi G, et al. Patterns in ano-rectal dose maps and the risk of late toxicity after prostate IMRT. Acta Oncol:1–8.https://doi.org/10.1080/0284186X.2019.1635267.
,
12- Casares-Magaz O.
- Muren L.P.
- Moiseenko V.
- Petersen S.E.
- Pettersson N.J.
- Høyer M.
- et al.
Spatial rectal dose/volume metrics predict patient-reported gastro-intestinal symptoms after radiotherapy for prostate cancer.
,
13- Vanneste B.G.
- Buettner F.
- Pinkawa M.
- Lambin P.
- Hoffmann A.L.
Ano-rectal wall dose-surface maps localize the dosimetric benefit of hydrogel rectum spacers in prostate cancer radiotherapy.
,
18- Dréan G.
- Acosta O.
- Ospina J.D.
- Fargeas A.
- Lafond C.
- Corrégé G.
- et al.
Identification of a rectal subregion highly predictive of rectal bleeding in prostate cancer IMRT.
]. Dréan et al. [
[18]- Dréan G.
- Acosta O.
- Ospina J.D.
- Fargeas A.
- Lafond C.
- Corrégé G.
- et al.
Identification of a rectal subregion highly predictive of rectal bleeding in prostate cancer IMRT.
] conducted voxel-level DVH analysis of planned dose to the rectal volume, and found rectal bleeding
grade 1 to be associated with dose to a SRR in the inferior-anterior hemi-rectum. Onjukka et al. [
[10]Onjukka E, Fiorino C, Cicchetti A, Palorini F, Improta I, Gagliardi G, et al. Patterns in ano-rectal dose maps and the risk of late toxicity after prostate IMRT. Acta Oncol:1–8.https://doi.org/10.1080/0284186X.2019.1635267.
] evaluated planned dose to the combined RW and anal canal using DSMs, and found inferior regions corresponding to the anal canal to be predictive of faecal incontinence
grade 1, and lateral-posterior subregions near the ano-rectal junction to be associated with rectal bleeding
grade 2. Where endpoints are comparable, the SRRs determined in the present study generally, but not exclusively, encompass these regions of interest. The observed variation in SRR clusters and patterns supports the notion that discrete toxicity effects may have different pathophysiologies.
A novelty of the work presented here is not only the comparison of SRR and full RW dose-toxicity analysis for planned dose, but also for total accumulated dose. The rectum is highly susceptible to motion and deformation [
[31]- Scaife J.
- Harrison K.
- Romanchikova M.
- Parker A.
- Sutcliffe M.
- Bond S.
- et al.
Random variation in rectal position during radiotherapy for prostate cancer is two to three times greater than that predicted from prostate motion.
], and therefore planned dose is not equal to delivered dose [
8- Murray J.
- McQuaid D.
- Dunlop A.
- Buettner F.
- Nill S.
- Hall E.
- et al.
SU-E-J-14: a novel approach to evaluate the dosimetric effect of rectal variation during image guided prostate radiotherapy.
,
9- Scaife J.E.
- Thomas S.J.
- Harrison K.
- Romanchikova M.
- Sutcliffe M.P.F.
- Forman J.R.
- et al.
Accumulated dose to the rectum, measured using dose-volume histograms and dose-surface maps, is different from planned dose in all patients treated with radiotherapy for prostate cancer.
,
14Casares-Magaz O, Bülow S, Pettersson NJ, Moiseenko V, Pedersen J, Thor M, et al. High accumulated doses to the inferior rectum are associated with late gastro-intestinal toxicity in a case-control study of prostate cancer patients treated with radiotherapy 2019;58(10):1543–1546.https://doi.org/10.1080/0284186X.2019.1632476.
,
16- Shelley L.E.A.
- Scaife J.E.
- Romanchikova M.
- Harrison K.
- Forman J.R.
- Bates A.M.
- et al.
Delivered dose can be a better predictor of rectal toxicity than planned dose in prostate radiotherapy.
,
41- Thor M.
- Bentzen L.
- Hysing L.B.
- Ekanger C.
- Helle S.I.
- Karlsdóttir Á.
- et al.
Prediction of rectum and bladder morbidity following radiotherapy of prostate cancer based on motion-inclusive dose distributions.
]. When comparing planned and delivered dose, total accumulated daily dose to the RW was systematically lower than planned dose (p < 0.001). This effect has been reported previously [
14Casares-Magaz O, Bülow S, Pettersson NJ, Moiseenko V, Pedersen J, Thor M, et al. High accumulated doses to the inferior rectum are associated with late gastro-intestinal toxicity in a case-control study of prostate cancer patients treated with radiotherapy 2019;58(10):1543–1546.https://doi.org/10.1080/0284186X.2019.1632476.
,
16- Shelley L.E.A.
- Scaife J.E.
- Romanchikova M.
- Harrison K.
- Forman J.R.
- Bates A.M.
- et al.
Delivered dose can be a better predictor of rectal toxicity than planned dose in prostate radiotherapy.
] and is thought to be due to interfraction motion causing a blurring of the highest dose regions. However, when focusing on SRRs, accumulated dose was greater than planned dose (p < 0.001), an effect masked when considering the full RW. This may indicate that these SRRs are more greatly affected by interfraction motion, and therefore dose calculated at treatment planning is not representative of the dose actually received in these regions. Differences between planned and delivered dose limit the level of accuracy achievable in dose-toxicity modelling.
In lieu of widely available systems for accumulating daily delivered dose to the rectum, previous studies have addressed this problem using approaches such as estimating motion-inclusive dose through statistical simulation [
[42]- Thor M.
- Apte A.
- Deasy J.O.
- Muren L.P.
Statistical simulations to estimate motion-inclusive dose-volume histograms for prediction of rectal morbidity following radiotherapy.
] or by extrapolation of dose calculated using a sample of cone-beam CT (CBCT) scans acquired throughout the course of treatment [
14Casares-Magaz O, Bülow S, Pettersson NJ, Moiseenko V, Pedersen J, Thor M, et al. High accumulated doses to the inferior rectum are associated with late gastro-intestinal toxicity in a case-control study of prostate cancer patients treated with radiotherapy 2019;58(10):1543–1546.https://doi.org/10.1080/0284186X.2019.1632476.
,
41- Thor M.
- Bentzen L.
- Hysing L.B.
- Ekanger C.
- Helle S.I.
- Karlsdóttir Á.
- et al.
Prediction of rectum and bladder morbidity following radiotherapy of prostate cancer based on motion-inclusive dose distributions.
]. Casares-Magaz et al. conducted a case-control study of 24 patients whereby accumulated dose was estimated through rigid registration of dose from 13 CBCT scans per patient. Dose-surface histograms of RW DSMs were analysed for associations with gastrointestinal toxicity
grade 2. Results revealed a subregion in the inferior rectum from the accumulated DSM predictive of toxicity, where planned dose could not be considered predictive. This supports the hypothesis that delivered dose is a better predictor of rectal toxicity than planned dose.
For accumulated dose, the use of SRRs produced stronger associations with toxicity than the full RW for three of four endpoints; rectal bleeding, proctitis, and faecal incontinence. For rectal bleeding this suggested radiosensitive regions spanning the inferior circumference to the right-posterior mid-RW, and an anterior-superior cluster. For proctitis, this was focussed in the posterior to lateral inferior RW. Small SRR clusters in the mid-posterior and right-inferior RW were identified for faecal incontinence. Results for stool frequency could not be considered significant, nor could any result from planned dose, other than EUD to the full RW for rectal bleeding. Of the three endpoints found to be associated with EUD to SRRs, although accumulated AUCs were greater than from planned dose, there was considerable overlap of CIs for proctitis and faecal incontinence, suggesting no significant advantage to using accumulated dose over planned dose. ORs from accumulated SRRs were greater than from planned SRRs for rectal bleeding and incontinence. All other results had CIs crossing 1. The greatest improvement to dose-toxicity association when analysing accumulated dose to SRRs was found for rectal bleeding, where the AUC was 13% greater than planned dose to the full RW and 15% greater than planned EUD to SRR, with a corresponding increase in OR of 26%.
The issue of correcting for multiple comparison testing in voxelwise dose-toxicity studies has been debated in the scientific literature. Palma et al. [
[43]- Palma G.
- Monti S.
- Cella L.
Voxel-based analysis in radiation oncology: a methodological cookbook.
] promote correcting for family-wise error rate (such as Bonferroni correction) or false discovery rate (such as the Benjamini-Hochberg, as investigated here). However, others have suggested that p-value adjustment may lead to increasing sensitivity to the point of overfitting the data when applied to voxel-level DSM analysis [
[10]Onjukka E, Fiorino C, Cicchetti A, Palorini F, Improta I, Gagliardi G, et al. Patterns in ano-rectal dose maps and the risk of late toxicity after prostate IMRT. Acta Oncol:1–8.https://doi.org/10.1080/0284186X.2019.1635267.
]. In their analysis of bladder DSMs, Palorini et al. [
[44]- Palorini F.
- Cozzarini C.
- Gianolini S.
- Botti A.
- Carillo V.
- Iotti C.
- et al.
First application of a pixel-wise analysis on bladder dose–surface maps in prostate cancer radiotherapy.
] discussed the issue at depth, and argued against reducing or adjusting p-values in this context, emphasising that their main goal was ’to identify the shape of dose regions that show the highest discrimination between the two groups of patients (toxicity versus no toxicity) without looking at significance at the single-pixel level’. They applied a similar post-processing smoothing approach to that used in this study. Based on these recommendations, Onjukka et al. [
[10]Onjukka E, Fiorino C, Cicchetti A, Palorini F, Improta I, Gagliardi G, et al. Patterns in ano-rectal dose maps and the risk of late toxicity after prostate IMRT. Acta Oncol:1–8.https://doi.org/10.1080/0284186X.2019.1635267.
] reported results for unadjusted p-values in a recent pattern analysis of rectal DSMs. Results for adjusted p-values were also included, but were considered overly restrictive. In the present study, results based on adjusted p-values have been included for completeness, but the focus was on SRRs generated using unadjusted p-values.
Higher AUCs were expected for accumulated dose than planned dose as, intuitively, true delivered dose incorporating interfraction motion should be more predictive of toxicity than the planned dose based on static anatomy. However, differences were generally small and there was overlap of CIs. The significance of results based on these small differences, for the relatively low toxicity rates, can therefore be highly sensitive to other limiting factors. For example, here, the accuracy of the FE model is dependent on the rectal contours, and accumulated dose data can be limited by the MVCT field of view.
The power of the current study was limited by its sample size. Although similar to previous studies [
10Onjukka E, Fiorino C, Cicchetti A, Palorini F, Improta I, Gagliardi G, et al. Patterns in ano-rectal dose maps and the risk of late toxicity after prostate IMRT. Acta Oncol:1–8.https://doi.org/10.1080/0284186X.2019.1635267.
,
18- Dréan G.
- Acosta O.
- Ospina J.D.
- Fargeas A.
- Lafond C.
- Corrégé G.
- et al.
Identification of a rectal subregion highly predictive of rectal bleeding in prostate cancer IMRT.
], here this resulted in relatively large confidence intervals, particularly when considering validation results with respect to training. The number of validation data points was lower than that generally considered adequate for ROC/AUC analysis, so OR comparisons were also included to provide further interpretation of results. Analysis of the validation set could not be considered to verify the training set results. However, these results should be interpreted with caution. The poor performance and wide confidence intervals are likely due to the small sample size and event rate within the validation set. The rationale for using a data partitioning approach (rather than alternative internal validation methods such as bootstrapping or k-fold cross-validation) was to ensure that the testing of the SRR analysis was conducted using an independent dataset, kept blind from the SRR-generation process. This was the approach used by Dréan et al. [
[18]- Dréan G.
- Acosta O.
- Ospina J.D.
- Fargeas A.
- Lafond C.
- Corrégé G.
- et al.
Identification of a rectal subregion highly predictive of rectal bleeding in prostate cancer IMRT.
] in their work determining rectal SRRs using a similar sample size.
The assumption was made that the two fractionation regimes could be radiobiologically combined due to equivalent levels of toxicity incidence [
[45]- Dearnaley D.
- Syndikus I.
- Mossop H.
- Khoo V.
- Birtle A.
- Bloomfield D.
- et al.
Conventional versus hypofractionated high-dose intensity-modulated radiotherapy for prostate cancer: 5-year outcomes of the randomised, non-inferiority, phase 3 chhip trial.
]. This approach has been used in similar investigations of rectal toxicity [
10Onjukka E, Fiorino C, Cicchetti A, Palorini F, Improta I, Gagliardi G, et al. Patterns in ano-rectal dose maps and the risk of late toxicity after prostate IMRT. Acta Oncol:1–8.https://doi.org/10.1080/0284186X.2019.1635267.
,
18- Dréan G.
- Acosta O.
- Ospina J.D.
- Fargeas A.
- Lafond C.
- Corrégé G.
- et al.
Identification of a rectal subregion highly predictive of rectal bleeding in prostate cancer IMRT.
]. However, within the patient cohort, increased rates of faecal incontinence and stool frequency were observed in the 74 Gy arm. Conversely, in a recent study by Heemsbergen et al. [
[15]- Heemsbergen W.D.
- Incrocci L.
- Pos F.J.
- Heijmen B.J.
- Witte M.G.
Local dose effects for late gastrointestinal toxicity after hypofractionated and conventionally fractionated modern radiotherapy for prostate cancer in the HYPRO trial.
], increased rates of toxicity were observed for rectal bleeding and stool frequency in a hypofractionated arm (64 Gy in 3.4 Gy fractions) compared with the conventional fractionation (78 Gy in 2 Gy fractions). The current study does not consider patient co-factors (including prescription), but such effects may be investigated in the future when a larger patient cohort is available.
The incorporation of accumulated dose to SRRs into dose-toxicity analysis has been shown to be more beneficial than using planned dose alone for certain toxicity endpoints, particularly rectal bleeding. The inclusion of accumulated dose into toxicity prediction models becomes an increasingly important consideration with the move towards hypo and ultra-hypofractionated treatments such as prostate SABR, where daily interfraction motion has a much greater effect in terms of contribution towards total delivered dose. Additionally, the duration of these treatment deliveries is of the order of magnitude where intrafraction motion should also be considered [
[46]- Thomas S.J.
- Ashburner M.
- Tudor G.S.J.
- Treeby J.
- Dean J.
- Routsis D.
- et al.
Intra-fraction motion of the prostate during treatment with helical tomotherapy.
]. The effect of intrafraction motion was outwith the scope of the VoxTox research programme.
In conclusion, we have demonstrated that voxel-level dose accumulation using FE-DSMs facilitates higher resolution interrogation of associations between rectal SRRs and toxicity. Regions of significant dose differences were identified per endpoint, away from the highest dose levels. SRRs defined from accumulated dose were more predictive of rectal bleeding than from planned dose. However, validation results were not significant. Ultimately, the aim is to use voxel-level accumulated dose information to develop more accurate and robust toxicity prediction models than previously achievable from planned dose. In the context of adaptive radiotherapy, these models could be used to identify and monitor patients most at risk of developing toxicity. If required, the treatment could then be modified to minimise and control the risk of toxicity, with a view to reducing incidence rates, lowering medical costs of associated care, and improving the patient’s quality of life.